Manufacturing in the U.S. probably expanded at a faster pace in October, driven by gains in exports and consumer spending that are keeping the recovery intact, economists said before a report today.
The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 52 from 51.6 a month earlier, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. A level of 50 is the dividing line between growth and contraction. Construction spending rose in September, another report may show.
American factories may keep leading the economy as growing demand from emerging economies drives orders and production. The industry is also benefiting from increasing business investment as companies take advantage of tax depreciation allowances on equipment purchased before the end of the year.
“Manufacturing is holding its own amid what is being characterized as a very moderate recovery,” Sean Incremona, a senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York, said before the report. “Whatever sort of economy we have going forward, manufacturing should be toward the top tier.”
The Tempe, Arizona-based ISM’s survey results will be released at 10 a.m. New York time. Estimates from 85 economists ranged from 50.5 to 55. While 50 is the midway point between expansion and contraction, a reading greater than 42.5 generally indicates an expansion in the overall economy, the group says.
Global Manufacturing
Other figures today showed global manufacturing cooled last month. A Chinese factory index dropped to the lowest level since February 2009, while a U.K. manufacturing gauge declined to a 28-month low.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 50.4 in October from 51.2 in September, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said in a statement today. The U.K. measure, based on a survey by Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply, dropped to 47.4 from a revised 50.8 in September, according to an e-mailed report in London today.
Federal Reserve officials begin a two-day meeting today to determine whether additional steps, including another round of securities purchases or changes to public communication, are needed to spur growth. In August and September, the central bank used unconventional tools aimed at lowering borrowing costs.
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